RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS

Important Facts

Ukraine:

● Ukraine used to be one of the 15 States of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). After the disintegration of the USSR in 1991 Ukraine became a separate independent sovereign country.

● Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second largest European country covering approximately G lakhs square kilometres and has a population of around 4.4 crore.

● The Capital of Ukraine is Kiev.

● Currency- Ukrainian Hryvnia.

● President- Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

● Prime Minister- Mrs. Yulia Svyrydenko

● Defence Minister- Mr. Denys Shmyhal

● Main languages- Ukrainian and also Russian.

● The earlier name of Ukraine was Ukrainian People’s Republic.

● The country was forcibly reconstituted into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic which became a founding member of USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republic) consisting of 15 States.

● Ukraine is bordered by Russia, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova.

Russia:

● Russia too was one of the 15 states of the USSR. After the disintegration of the USSR in 1991 Russia became an independent sovereign country.

● Area - 171 Lakh sq. kms.

● Population - 14.41 crores

● Capital - Moscow

● Currency - Russian Ruble

● President - Vladimir Putin

● Prime Minister - Mikhail Mishustin

● Defence Minister - Andrey Belousov

On Feb 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-fledged invasion on Ukraine. The tensions on Ukraine’s border with Russia were at their highest in years. Fearing a potential invasion by Russia, The US and NATO stepped up their support for Ukraine.

Russia – Ukraine Conflict Background

● Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until 1991 when it disintegrated, and Russia has tried to maintain the country in its orbit since then.

● In 2014, a separatist insurgency started in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland, Donetsk Basin.

● Russia further gained a maritime advantage in the region due to its invasion and annexation of Crimea.

● As a result, both the US and the EU have pledged to safeguard the integrity of Ukraine’s borders.

Importance of Ukraine to Russia

● Ukraine and Russia have shared cultural and linguistic ties for hundreds of years.

● Ukraine was the most powerful country in the Soviet Union after Russia.

● Ukraine has been a hub for commercial industries, factories and defence manufacturing.

● Ukraine also provides Russia with access to the Black Sea and crucial connectivity to the Mediterranean Sea.

Why did Ukraine not join NATO?

Although Ukraine has no membership offer from NATO, it has been closer to the alliance since its establishment in 1991. Plans for NATO membership were dropped by Ukraine’s ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, who preferred to keep the country non aligned.

Crimea

The USSR transferred Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. The status of Crimea is disputed. Crimea declared its independence from Ukraine in February 2014 following a disputed referendum and Russia took control over Crimea in March 2014. Despite the annexation of Crimea by Russia most countries recognised Crimea as a part of Ukraine.

NATO and WARSAW Pact:

● After World War II, the whole world was divided into two ideologies – Capitalism and Communism. The Capitalist block was led by the USA and the Communist block was led by the erstwhile USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republic).

● The capitalist block formed a military PACT known as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) which is also known as North Atlantic Alliance.

● Communist block formed a military PACT known as WARSAW PACT. With the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, WARSAW PACT too ceased to exist.

● The North Atlantic Treaty was signed on April 4th, 1949 – originally by 12 countries. Now, the strength of NATO has increased to 32. Recently, Finland and Sweden were awarded membership of NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

● NATO is a system of collective security, its independent member States agree to defend each other against attack by third parties.

● President Truman of the USA insisted on the formation of NATO after World War II.

● NATO was established in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union.

Headquarter of NATO: The Headquarter of NATO is located in Brussels (Belgium).

Secretary General of NATO:

● The Secretary General of NATO is the chief civil servant of NATO.

● The current Secretary General is Former Prime Minister of Netherlands Mr. Mark Rutte.

● Tenure: 4 years.

● Eligible to be re-elected.

● First Secretary General: General Hastings Ismay (Born in Nainital, India).

WARSAW PACT:

● The WARSAW Treaty Organization (WTO), commonly known as WARSAW PACT (W.P.) used to be a collective defence treaty signed in WARSAW (Capital of Poland) between the Soviet Union and seven other Socialists countries in May 1955 during the cold war (Cold war refers to ideological war between Capitalism and Communism).

● The WARSAW PACT was created in a reaction to the formation of NATO in general and the integration of West Germany into NATO in 1955. WARSAW PACT was a treaty of friendship, co-operation & mutual assistance and regional economic organization for the Socialist States of Europe.

● WARSAW PACT was dominated by the Soviet Union and established as a balance of power or counterweight to NATO.

● Both NATO and WARSAW PACT led to the expansion of military forces and their integration into the respective blocks.

● East Germany withdrew from the PACT following German re-unification in 1990.

● On 25th February 1991, at a meeting in Hungary, the PACT was declared at an end by the defence and foreign ministers of remaining member States. The Warsaw Pact no longer exists.

● The USSR itself was disintegrated in December, 1991.

● Most of the countries of erstwhile USSR joined NATO. Ukraine too was also leading towards membership of NATO which led to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Note:

India is not a member of either NATO or Warsaw Pact. Instead it chose a policy of non alignment deliberately avoiding allegiance to any military alliance. However, non alignment does not imply neutrality rather it reflects India’s active engagement in international affairs based on the merits of each issue. In fact, India was one of the founding members of Non Alignment Movement (NAM) established in 1961 at a summit in Belgrade, former Yugoslavia.

Causes of Disputes between Russia and Ukraine

● Relations between Russia and Ukraine became hostile after the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution which was followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and due to Russia’s backing for the separatist fighters of Donetsk and Luhansk States of Ukraine.

● Russia wants to overrun Ukraine and dispose of its government ending its desire to join the western defensive alliance- NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation). Russia wants to de-militarise and de-Nazify Ukraine.

● Russia charged Ukrainian government for bullying and the genocide of the Russians in Ukraine. Russia also wants to ensure Ukraine’s neutral status.

● Since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has been living in fear of war with Russia. Russia and Ukraine have been at odds for a long time with Russia claiming Ukraine as a part of its country and opposing Ukraine’s ties to the West.

● Ukraine was also trying to become a member of NATO and Russia was taking this step of Ukraine as a security threat to Russia.

● After the disintegration of the USSR in 1991 most of its former States became members of NATO. They share borders with Russia and Russia is unhappy with these countries to be a member of NATO considering this as a serious security threat to its country.

Reasons for the Russian Aggression

The chief reasons for Russian aggression are as below:

1. Economic Factors

● Russia, considering the economic significance of Ukraine, sought Ukraine’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC), which is a free trade agreement that came into being in 2015.

● With its huge market and advanced agriculture and industrial output, Ukraine was supposed to play an important role. But Ukraine refused to join the agreement.

2. Geo-Political and Strategic Factors

● Russia claims that the eastward expansion by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) which they call “enlargement”, has threatened Russia’s interests and has asked for written security guarantees from NATO.

● NATO, led by the U.S. has planned to install missile defence systems in eastern Europe in countries like Poland and the Czech Republic to counter Russia’s intercontinental-range missiles.

3. Russia – Ukraine Latest Developments

● Russia had been indulging in military build-up along its border with Ukraine, an aspiring NATO member. Russia has stated that its troop deployment is in response to NATO’s steady eastward expansion. Russia argues that its moves are aimed at protecting its own security considerations.

● Russia had mobilised around 1,00,000 troops on its border with Ukraine.

● Russia was seeking assurance from the US that Ukraine shall not be inducted into NATO.

● This has resulted in tensions between Russia and the West which has been supportive of Ukraine. The U.S. has assured Ukraine that it will “respond decisively” in case of an invasion by Russia.

4. Russia’s demands

● Russia had demanded a ban on further expansion of NATO that includes countries like Ukraine and Georgia that share Russia’s borders.

● Russia asked NATO to pull back its military deployments to the 1990s level and prohibit the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the bordering areas.

● Further, Russia asked NATO to curb its military cooperation with Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

5. The Response from the West

● The U.S. had ruled out changing NATO’s “open-door policy” which means, NATO would continue to induct more members.

● The U.S. also said that it would continue to offer training and weapons to Ukraine.

● The U.S. was said to be open to discussions regarding missile deployment and a mutual reduction in military exercises in Eastern Europe.

● Germany had also warned Russia that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be stopped if Russia were to invade Ukraine.

● The U.S. threatened Russia by imposing new economic sanctions in case of attempts of invasion against Ukraine.

Russia – Ukraine Crisis: Implications on India

● An invasion by Russia has put pressure on India to choose between the Western alliance and Russia.

● Maintaining strong relations with Russia serves India’s national interests. India has to retain a strong strategic alliance with Russia. As a result, India cannot join any Western strategy aimed at isolating Russia.

● A pact between the US and Russia might affect Russia’s relations with China. This might allow India to expand on its efforts to re-establish ties with Russia.

● The issue with Ukraine is that the world is becoming increasingly economically and geopolitically interconnected. Any improvement in Russia-China ties has ramifications for India.

● There is also an impact on the strong Indian diaspora present in the region, threatening the lives of thousands of Indian students.

India’s stand

● India called for “a peaceful resolution of the situation through sustained diplomatic efforts for long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond”.

● Immediately after the annexation, India abstained from voting in the UN General Assembly on a resolution that sought to condemn Russia.

● In 2020, India voted against a Ukraine-sponsored resolution in the UN General Assembly that sought to condemn alleged human rights violations in Crimea.

● India’s position is largely rooted in neutrality and has adapted itself to the post-2014 status quo on Ukraine.

The Way forward

● The US along with other western countries is expected to revive the peace process through diplomatic channels in mitigating the tensions between Ukraine and Russia which would be a time-consuming process.

● Experts recommend more dialogues between the West and Russia that exert emphasis on the issue surrounding Ukraine.

● As pointed out by an expert, the Russian military expansion in Ukraine can be prevented on the geo-economic grounds that will hamper its trade in the region especially with the Nord Stream pipeline that can carve out a way of resolving the ongoing crisis.

CURRENT SCENARIO

● After winning the US Presidential election in Nov 2024, Mr. Trump declared to follow the policy of America First, American Citizen First and American Interest First. He declared that he will stop military & economic aid to UKRAINE. After assuming office on 20th Jan 2025, he has been constantly working to stop Russia -Ukraine conflict. He is pursuing Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine and also assuring Ukraine of its Security from Russia.

● The US is also trying to have a deal with Ukraine about critical minerals available in Ukraine. The US has been assuring Russia that Ukraine will not be given membership of NATO. The Russia-Ukraine war may stop in the near future with the mediation of the US.